Ruble Surges to Two-Year Peak Against U.S. Dollar
(MENAFN) Analysts report that the Russian ruble surged to its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in two years during Thursday’s forex trading, driven by optimistic geopolitical shifts and robust global oil market conditions.
The ruble, which has been steadily gaining ground for months, dropped below 78 per dollar by Thursday afternoon, marking its strongest position since May 2023.
Yevgeny Loktyukhov from Promsvyazbank attributed this upswing to Russia’s recent disclosure of a peace memorandum draft and the climbing oil prices. He explained that these factors have bolstered the ruble's value.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has suggested that the upcoming Ukraine peace negotiations be held in Istanbul on June 2. Concurrently, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his stance against imposing sanctions on Russia, expressing optimism about resolving the ongoing conflict.
Brent crude, the primary export commodity for Russia, advanced by 1.2%, reaching $65.68 per barrel.
Loktyukhov noted that the improved geopolitical landscape combined with favorable oil market trends is likely to counterbalance the usual month-end decline in foreign currency supply caused by tax payments. Typically, oil exporters convert their foreign currency earnings into rubles at month-end to cover local expenses, which usually supports the ruble.
Natalia Pyryeva, lead analyst at Tsifra Broker, highlighted additional factors strengthening the ruble, pointing to high foreign exchange liquidity and subdued demand for foreign currencies.
Some market watchers forecast that if the current geopolitical momentum holds, the ruble could climb further to 75 per dollar this month. Yet, they caution that without concrete progress, this rally might prove fleeting.
Following President Trump’s return to office, Moscow and Washington have revived high-level diplomatic dialogues. Trump has repeatedly urged a rapid end to the conflict and a reset of bilateral ties. Recently, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a 2.5-hour phone conversation, which both leaders described as productive.
Earlier in June, Russian and Ukrainian delegations convened in Istanbul for their first direct negotiations since Kiev withdrew from peace talks in 2022. This meeting led to the largest prisoner exchange so far, with both sides releasing 1,000 detainees each.
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